With draft season in full swing, we take a look at 4 players that are either overvalued or undervalued based on the latest reports of average draft position (ADP). We will be using the ADP generated by Fantasypros.com . For the purpose of this article, we will use the average draft position form a 12 team PPR format. You could find Part I of our overvalued/undervalued here.
Andrew Luck – # 6 QB (63rd overall)
Luck has only recently started throwing again after having surgery on his sore throwing shoulder to repair a torn labrum. The surgery was kept secret up until the completion of the procedure, and according to Colts officials, it was an
injury that was bothering him throughout the entire 2016 season. Despite the injury, Luck was able to throw for over 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns (to only 13 interceptions). Numbers that would translate into the #4 quarterback just a a year ago. So why is he listed as being overvalued as the sixth quarterback off the board? Good question. He’s being drafted in the 6th round and isn’t going to see the field for the entire preseason. As of now, he also isn’t a lock to be in there against the Rams on opening day. Maybe you want to take your chances with his talent and the upside that goes along with it. I can’t blame you. I mean, he did finish in the top 5 last season while playing hurt, right? Yes he did, but the difference between him (at #4) and the 12th best fantasy quarterback was 47 points. That’s about 3 points a week. Considering that the #12 quarterback ( Dak Prescott) is being drafted 3 rounds later, and guys like Matthew Stafford and Phillip Rivers are going in rounds 10/11, makes Luck an overvalue for me. I’d much rather take one of the aforementioned players at their given round(s), than someone who’s progress and recovery we really don’t know much about.
Jordan Reed – # 4 TE (51 overall)
Reed led all tight ends on a Fantasy points per game basis in 2016 (14.1)…But that’s because he only played in 12 of them. In two of those 12 games, he left early in the 1st quarter, breaking the hearts of his owners who waited anxiously to see if he was going to be active at all. I believe in Reed’s ability and there’s no doubt that he can give you an edge at the tight end position when he’s actually in there. I don’t believe in spending a 5th round pick on a TE that has repeatedly missed valuable games for his owners. Not only is he one concussion away from perhaps not playing the game anymore, but he’s had multiple injuries to chest, shoulder, legs and now feet. Reed will be wearing a special orthodic to protect his toe this season. Doesn’t sound promising. Drafting Reed at his current ADP is a high risk – high reward move. I’d much rather take a risk on another tight end later in the draft. I don’t recall many people that had Kyle Rudolph, Zach Ertz, Dennis Pitta and Cameron Brate inside their top 10 last season. All of them finished ahead of Reed. Wait.
Rob Kelly – #37 RB (99th overall)
I almost feel dirty putting Fat Rob on the list of undervalued. Kelly is the clear-cut #1 running back for Washington in both practices and the first preseason game. His numbers weren’t pretty in that game, but he was the guy that handled the ball with the first team offense. He even caught a pass in that game. The Samaje Perine love has died down for now. Perine (Pronounced – PEERINE) has been having difficulties holding onto the ball in practice and even put the ball on the ground in the preseason opener as well. That gets rookie running backs on the bench. If your’re drafting now, being able to get a teams’ starting running back in the 9th/10th round(s) is great value. His value is definitely higher in standard leagues, but seeing him involved some in the passing game early on is a good sign.
Pierre Garcon – #35 WR (76 overall)
Garcon finished as a WR2 (#23 overall) in 2016 and there really is no reason to think he can’t come close to that again this year. No doubt the Redskins offense from a year ago was more dynamic than the 49ers’ will be this season. However, Brian Hoyer is a good enough quarterback to get him the ball, and let’s face it….who is he competing with for targets? The target share for Garcon is just going to be too good to sleep on, and he should be drafted a round or two ahead of where he currently is.