The Saints Come Rushing In

September 12, 2021, Opening Sunday for the National Football League.  The Saints are opening against The Packers.  I can’t wait to sit on my couch and watch that game.  Two of the best Quarterbacks of the past two decades throwing to their respective studs at the Wide Receiver position.  Yes, that’s the story I wanted to write.  Instead, Drew Brees retired and Aaron Rodgers may follow that same path soon. No one knows what’s going on with Davante Adams and the complications regarding his signing of a contract extension. And Michael Thomas?  I drafted him in my new startup dynasty league in the 6^th Round, what a steal! Or so I thought… Well, Michael Thomas, suffered a high ankle sprain in the waning moments of the first game of last season against the eventual Super Bowl Champions, The Buccaneers.  He missed the next three games as a result of the injury; was on pace to play Week 5, but ended up suspended following a fight with teammate C.J. Gardner-Johnson during a practice.  He was ruled out again for the following two games after the bye on Week 6.  Thomas returned on Week 9 and played through Week 14, only topping 100 yards twice, both times against Atlanta, and never scoring a touchdown.  He did return for the playoffs but didn’t have a catch in their game against, again The Buccaneers. Luckily the injury took place at the start of the season, which gave him plenty of time to get back to full health.  He had the whole preseason to rehab his ankle and be ready for opening game. Well, no, that’s not the story either. Allegedly, Thomas was expected to have a follow up with a specialist to review the status of his ankle. Then, in June 2021 he had surgery to repair his ankle. This is a disaster, but not the point of my article. This was just a way to vent my own frustrations. How’s Tom Brady by the way, very well thank you.

What do to with The Saints now? When do I draft their pass catchers and their Running Backs? Who do I draft? Who is their Quarterback? We are still exploring the answer to these questions in the aftermath of the news of Thomas’ surgery. But we do know one thing, Sean Payton is still the coach. He is creative and adapts very well to his personnel. Let’s start with the man himself, Michael Thomas. The reports suggest that the timetable to recuperate from this surgery is four to six months. The surgery was in June; therefore, we are talking about October at the earliest. However, The Saints have their bye week on Week 6, which is October 17. I expect the earliest Thomas would play would be Week 7, October 25, against The Seahawks. I still draft Thomas ahead of all other pass catchers on the team. Late Round 8, early Round 9 would be the spot for me. The implications of this injury may determine who the Quarterback will be. With a healthy Michael Thomas, I believe it would have been a close race between Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston. With this news, Hill should win the job. The Saints have been wanting to rush the ball more, even when Brees was still with the team. They got a taste of life without Brees last year with Hill taking over the position. I would posit that Payton wants to continue running the ball and will create game plans with this purpose in mind. That gives Hill the advantage over Winston. I expect a game plan to simulate The Ravens’ offense. Alvin Kamara, entering his 5^th year in the league, rushed the ball 187 times for 932 yards and 16 touchdowns in 15 games in 2020. Yes, 6 of those touchdowns came in Week 16 I know. He also had 83 receptions for 756 yards and 5 touchdowns. His rushing production seemed to suffer a bit with Hill. But that’s not the real story, as his usage increased as Hill became more comfortable with the offense. Also, Payton will have more time to help Hill and Kamara gel better and become a more cohesive running attack. I don’t see Kamara’s production increasing significantly more. Yes, he may get closer to 200 rushing attempts and 1,000 rushing yards. But his rushing touchdowns will likely regress to the mean. So where does the increase rushing attack come from? The Saints are in the position to increase Latavius Murray’s workload. The three seasons after his rookie year, Murray average over 200 rushing attempts per season.  He is a big back, 6’3” and 230 lbs. Murray will be 31 years of age at the start of the 2021 season, so he’s no spring chicken. In the last three years, playing primarily as a backup, he’s had around 142 attempts and 600 yards. I can see a range of outcomes where Murray is over 200 rushing attempts and around 750 to 800 yards. He should be drafted just behind the tear that includes Kareen Hunt and before the tear that includes Jaamal Williams. He is a Running Back that you can use in the flex position and could be a top 15 Running Back if Karmara were to get hurt with the increased workload.

Now, the hard work commences. What to do with the pass catchers in this team? Who benefits from the available playing time? If we buy into the idea that Hill

(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, Pool)

will be the Quarterback, we then should look back at his passing attempts when he was at the reigns of the team. He targeted Michael Thomas quite a bit. He likes to throw the ball to a receiver with sure hands, nice and large catching radius, and within 5 to 15 yards from the scrimmage line. Who in The Saints meets this profile? I argue that the top receiver for The Saints, other than Michael Thomas when he comes back, will be Adam Trautman, The Saints’ Tight End. Trautman is entering his second year in the league. As a rookie he caught 15 out of 16 passes thrown his way for 171 yards and 1 touchdown. Prepare for those numbers to increase in a big way. Trautman is a large human, 6’5” and 255 lbs, and he had a fairly successful career in college. As a freshman, he caught 24 passes for 238 yards and three touchdowns. He followed that with 43 receptions for 537 yards and five touchdowns and was named second team All-Pioneer Football League in his sophomore season.  As a junior, Trautman led the team with 41 receptions, 604 yards and nine touchdowns and was again named second team All-PFL.  As a Senior, Trautman was named the PFL Offensive Player of the Year and first team All-PFL after catching 70 passes for 916 yards and 14 touchdowns.  He finished his collegiate career with 171 receptions for 2,295 yards and 31 touchdowns. I would be looking to draft Trautman as a top ten Tight End, and I would even consider him in the same tier as Noah Fant and Dallas Goedert, but ahead of Mike Gesicki, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry.  If Trautman is available in the 9^th Round, jump on that wagon. None of the other pass catchers are worth more than a late round flyer. In a world where Michael Thomas was healthy and starting as a Wide Receiver, Tre’Quan Smith would be interesting. He would not get the top coverage from opposing corners and would be free to run fast and deep and catch 50-yard bombs. In The Saints’ loss to the Buccaneers in the playoffs, Smith caught a 56-yard touchdown from Jameis Winston. We all thought this could be the future for this player, however, Winston will not be the starting Quarterback and Tre’Quan Smith will not be able to roam free with secondary coverage. He will have some games where he has 3 catches for 70 yards (one of them a 50-yard catch) and a touchdown. He is a good player for bestball leagues but nothing else.  At best, Smith will be a boom or bust, mostly bust, receiver for redraft leagues. Yes, the hype train is loud and based on his current ADP, he will be over- drafted.   Deonte Harris is a 3^rd year Wide Receiver who the team signed as an undrafted free agent from tiny Assumption University in Massachusetts. He is 5’6” 170 lbs. with full gear on. In his two years with the team, he has barely 50 yards and only one touchdown. Marques Callaway was also an undrafted free agent signed by the team.  He’s entering his second year after posting 23 catches for barely 200 yards with the team last year.  At 6’2” and 205 lbs., Callaway has the size to make some noise in the NFL. His 40-yard dash was clocked at 4.55, not great, but not too bad for his size. He may end up being the 3^rd starting Wide Receiver for the team, but you will not be happy with him in your lineup.

To recap, buy The Saints’ running game. Kamara will be his usual self, with a bit more production. His ceiling will be the RB2 or RB3 with a very safe floor. Murray will be a serviceable flex RB with top 15 RB potential if Kamara were to miss increased time. Trautman may end up being the breakout Tight End we seek out every year. Michael Thomas will return. He will miss 6 to 8 games but return to be the top Wideout for the team. Tre’Quan Smith will be a boom/bust Wide Receiver, best suited for bestball leagues. Neither Quarterback will break the top 18. And to make matters more complicated, The Saints may sign another Wide Receiver, which would muddy the waters even further. Good luck this season guys. We will need it.