Rookie Fantasy Impact Wide Receivers
Rookie wide receivers generally have less of a fantasy impact than that of the running backs, and rightfully so. Receivers have the tough task of knowing the routes for the entire playbook, and getting on the same page as the quarterback. Over the years, you will see many fantasy outlets, ourselves included, that publishes an article based on 3rd year wide receivers. The general thought here is that it is in year three of a wide receiver’s careers, in which they finally “get it” and start breaking out. A theory often said by Hall of Famer, Jerry Rice.
Of course we have our exceptions, and some stellar rookies have had great seasons more recently than in the past. Odell Beckham had one of the best rookie seasons ever in 2014, as he finished as the number 7 fantasy wide receiver while playing in only 12 games..12 GAMES!!…Mike Evans was a WR1 in standard scoring that very same season, and Kelvin Benjamin was a mid WR2. Those three players were all drafted in the first round of the NFL draft that year and had some hype heading into the season for their respective teams, and still the fantasy industry knew better. Kelvin Benjamin was the 2nd rookie wide receiver off the board in fantasy drafts, after Brandin Cooks, who went on to disappoint us, with an ADP in the 7th round. Evans followed in the 9th round. Beckham had a right hamstring tear and missed the entire preseason, as well as the first 4 regular games, and therefore was off draft boards. 2011 gave us first round receivers, A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Even as top 5 NFL picks, we didn’t draft them until the 7th and 9th rounds. (Julio-7th / Green-9th). It turned out to be good value, since they both finished as WR2’s. There have been others to be decent fantasy contributors right out of the gate, but you can understand the difficulty based on the examples above. The aforementioned players were highly regarded players coming out of college, so we know the talent level was already there. The hype isn’t great with the wide receiver class of 2019. Marquise Brown and N’Keal Harry were the only receivers taken in the first round, and it wasn’t until the back-end. So far, the industry is staying the course and waiting a bit to draft these rookie receivers. Depending on which site your using, N’Keal Harry is the first one off the board in the 9th round, followed by D.K. Metcalf according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Fantrax has Mecole Hardman in the 9th and Harry in the 10th to start the rookie receiver run. With about 16 or so notable rookies, we’ll focus on the one’s being drafted through 14 or 15 rounds.
N’Keal Harry- NE- ADP: 9.04
Harry couldn’t have landed in a more perfect spot. Tom Brady and the Patriots probably loved his route running and back shoulder catch ability. Do I personally have some hesitations based on the complexity of the Patriots playbook? Yes, I do. However, if you believe what the beat writers are saying, Harry seems to be doing just fine picking it up, and is already gaining the trust of Brady. The 9th round is good value since he could certainly out-perform that draft slot and finish in the back-end of WR2 territory, but chances are I’ll be passing on him there based on some of the other receivers being drafted near him. History isn’t on the side of or Harry either, as the Patriots’ rookie receivers don’t seem to be so fantasy relevant. Going back to 2000, Aaron Dobson was the best Patriots rookie receiver, and he finished with 37 receptions, 519 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was good for WR62. The next best would be Deion Branch in 2002 who finished as WR76. So while drafting Harry as the WR40 isn’t crazy, and his ADP is really a non-risk, perhaps we need to have some hesitation. Have the Patriots ever really needed a rookie receiver to be an offensive focal point? Perhaps not, which is why the upside is also there for Harry.
Players I would rather have at or later than that draft value: Courtland Sutton, Golden Tate, Curtis Samuel, Donte Moncrief.
D.K. Metcalf-SEA-ADP: 9.10
Everyone’s combine and draft darling. Guilty as charged too. It was difficult to not to get excited about the physical specimen Metcalf displayed to be at the combine. While many outlets had him going in the first round, NFL teams didn’t take the bait as easily. Metcalf was the 9th receiver off the board, and it wasn’t until the last pick of round two, when Seattle finally called his name. As the second receiver off the board in many fantasy drafts, it demonstrates that fantasy players are still believing that he can be relevant for fantasy, from the start. Sure, there have been videos going around social media that have been exposing him as a stiff runner with poor route running, and I’m not saying those are wrong. What makes Metcalf so intriguing despite that, is the opportunity he has in Seattle. He’s going to be on the field…A lot. Outside of Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks receiving is average at best. Metcalf will be out there, and he’ll be used on deep balls and in the red zone for sure. This has the writing of the type of fantasy player that will go off when on your bench, and give you nothing while in your lineup. Sounds like someone to target in best ball for sure though!
Players I would rather have at or later than that draft value: Courtland Sutton, Golden Tate, Curtis Samuel, Donte Moncrief.
Mecole Hardman-KC- ADP: 10.11
The Chiefs traded up for Hardman, which surprised many, but it seems that his fantasy value is tied primarily to the fate of Tyreek Hill. As of this writing, the league has yet to rule on the Tyreek situation, but some latest audio could actually favor Hill in his case. That’s a story for another day. Hardman’s ADP is fine where it is if you’re drafting now and want to take that flier. If we get definite word on a lengthy suspension for Hill, Hardman’s ADP will surely climb, and probably to an area that would make me uncomfortable taking him. In a similar situation to that of Harry, the landing spot couldn’t be better. Hardman is a weapon. Someone the Chiefs can use in many ways. It is unfortunate that as of now, we really don’t know where he stands…One thing is for sure though. If Hill is not suspended, Hardman will slide, but he is still someone worth grabbing late based on his skill-set and system.
Parris Campbell-IND- ADP: 11.11
Campbell landed in a nice place with Indianapolis. He presents excellent deep speed, but will also give Andrew Luck a weapon underneath and will be utilized in space. The Colts did give Devin Funchess a 10 (potentially 13) million dollar contract, so Campbell is most likely going to see most of his time in three-receiver sets, and I do like Funchess better in standard scoring formats. Campbell however, is a unique athlete with his size and speed. His 6 foot frame certainly isn’t the tallest, but he is filled out and ran a 4.31 40 yard at the combine. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see Campbell take over as the #2 option in the passing game at some point this season, and I love his long-term dynasty outlook. His 11.11 ADP suggests he could be coming at a bargain, as he is being drafted as the 53rd overall wide receiver. Michael Crabtree ended last season at the spot, so it isn’t outrageous to envision Campbell getting 50 receptions, 600 yards and 4 TD’s…Those are the figures it would take to finish as WR53 over the past 5 seasons.
Marquise Brown-BAL- ADP: 13.12
One could argue that Brown was the most talented receiver in the draft, but being drafted by the Ravens certainly could put a damper on his fantasy production. It won’t be for lack of opportunity, since he should be able to be the team’s number 1 wide receiver beginning in week one. The problem lies with the quarterback that needs to get him the ball. I’m not trying to downgrade the ability of Lamar Jackson, but you can’t deny that he has work to do when it comes to passing the football. His 58.2 completion percentage was worst in the NFL for a quarterback with at least 200 pass attempts. Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Josh Allen had lower completion percentages, but all of them attempted at least 200 more passes….Sam Darnold had 300 more attempts. The low amount of passes in itself is a reason to have some concern for Brown and the other Baltimore receivers. Jackson only averaged 22 pass attempts a game when he started, and the most he had in one week was 25. We all know that Jackson is a running quarterback, so it is no surprise to see him average only 5 less rushing attempts per game than passes. This is turning more into about Jackson than it is Brown, but you can see where I’m going with this. I have no problem with taking a flier on Brown at his current ADP, but chances are you’ll be sending him back to the waiver wire before week 3 or 4…Then of course he’ll have a big game! That’s the type of season we’ll be looking for Marquise Brown.
Andy Isabella- ARI- ADP: 14.02
Isabella is an intriguing prospect to keep an eye on during training camp and preseason games. The entire Arizona Cardinals offense had a face-lift, and it begins with new Head Coach, Cliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury should be bringing an innovative system to the team, and that could benefit Isabella the most, with his versatility and how he can be used in that offense. While he will be involved from the start, Isabella will still be competing for playing time and touches with future Hall of Famer, Larry Fitzgerald, second-year man Christian Kirk, and fellow rookie Hakeem Butler. Butler, for what it’s worth, was one of my favorite receivers in this class, but his fantasy production likely won’t come to fruition until after Fitzgerald retires. My main concern with not just Isabella, but the entire Arizona offense, is how rookie quarterback Kyler Murray will be able to spread the ball. David Johnson is still in the backfield, and Murray likes to, and will run often. If you’re interested in drafting Isabella, and just need someone at the end of your depth chart, the 14th round is a perfect time to make that pick.
Deebo Samuel- SF-: ADP14.06
Samuel is a talented receiver that should be given the opportunity to succeed right out of the gate. According to early depth charts, Samuel is going to man the slot for the Niners, and he will probably emerge as the #2 on the outside, opposite Dante Pettis in two receiver sets as the season gets going. With a lot of attention being paid to Pettis and George Kittle, Samuel has the ability to be a go-to guy for Jimmy Garrppolo in that offense (a la Julian Edelman in NE). With his ADP being what it is, and his immediate opportunity, he is certainly someone that can out-perrform his draft value, and is simply being undervalued in league circles. Take a flier on him if he’s available this late in your drafts, and have the patience to hold onto him through the first few weeks of the season, as a back end WR3 finish wouldn’t surprise me. In addition, fellow rookie Jalen Hurd can be a factor as well depending on the health and status of Jordan Matthews, but isn’t someone you want to be looking at in your draft unless there is a preseason injury. Bookmark his name however, because he will be on the waiver wire report at some point.
**BONUS PLAYER!
Terry McLaurin-WAS- ADP: Not drafted
I wanted to give a bonus player here of someone that I like, and one that either isn’t being drafted at all, or very very late in leagues with deep rosters. While that spot could have easily gone to someone like A.J. Brown, Miles Boykin, or Hunter Renfrow, in the end it’s Terry McLaurin that gets the nod. The former Buckeye, and current Washington Redskins, is someone you want to pay attention to. For the record however, there really isn’t anyone on the Redskins offense that I am targeting or wanting to draft, and that includes their running backs. Derrius Guice is already hurt again (hamstring), and Adrian Peterson is not running for 2,000 yards despite what he says. As far as McLaurin goes though, he flashed some in the OTA’s and should be given a large role from the get-go. All you have to do is take a look at the wide receiver group for Washington. There isn’t anybody on that squad that you should be excited about. Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson are nice players, but neither of them have lived up to their potential to this point. The one name you hear most often is Trey Quinn. Quinn certainly is someone that can have fantasy relevance this season too, but it shouldn’t be long, if not by week 1, that Dwayne Haskins is the starting quarterback. Slow down, I’m not getting excited about Haskins. However, one of the most important aspects for a rookie quarterback is feeling comfortable. You gain that comfort when there is confidence and confidence comes with familiarity. Haskins has that with McLaurin from Ohio State. In fact, McLaurin’s best college season (35 rec, 700 yds, 11 TD’s) was this past one when Haskins was starting every game. On a smaller scale, 2 out of the 4 touchdowns Haskins threw in 2017, were also to McLaurin. Don’t go crazy and think I’m saying you must draft this guy. You don’t. I just fully expect McLaurin to be a big part of Haskin’s looks when he takes over under center.
Week 1 Tight End Replacements
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