Dede Westbrook has been one of my favorites for a couple of years now. He is the most talented wide receiver on the Jaguars roster, and has an upgrade at quarterback with Nick Foles throwing him the ball instead of Blake Bortles. Doug Marone and the Jags certainly want to run the ball, but that shouldn’t stop us from drafting Westbrook, especially at his current average draft position of 10.04. Even if that ADP rises a couple of rounds by the time you’re drafting, Westbrook will return value on that investment. The numbers weren’t exceptional last season, but good enough to make him a WR3 (32nd at WR) and only 15 fantasy points from being a WR2. He is being drafted in close proximity to that 32nd finish at the position according to fantasy football calculator, but the 45th wide receiver off the board on the fantrax platform. DJ Chark and Chris Conley will get their shares, and are also a couple of sleeper names to keep in mind, but with Marquise Lee most likely not an option to start the season, Westbrook is going to be looking to expand on the 101 targets that came his way last season.

DJ Moore was getting all the attention, and is still being drafted three full rounds ahead of Samuel, but it could very well be Curtis Samuel that becomes the fantasy steal. Samuel has been getting a lot of love in camp lately and his draft stock and ADP has climbed because of it. DJ Moore himself has recently admitted that there isn’t a true #1 receiver on the Panthers team, and things are pretty much even between he, Curtis and Jarius Wright when it comes to getting the ball in practice. With that said, it is still expected that Moore will be seeing the majority of opposing team’s top corners, leaving Samuel to exploit the mismatches he’ll have with the less superior defenders. Samuel is entering his third year in the league, and is more comfortable in Norv Turner’s offense. I’m personally a fan of both Samuel and Moore, and have no problem with either at their current ADP. The longer you wait to draft, and you should be waiting as long as you can, the less of a discount you will get on the Curtis Samuel train.

Fine. You don’t want to listen to me, then don’t. I’ve been saying for months, that Deebo Samuel will out-perform Dante Pettis both in real-life and in fantasy production. I’ll say it again, and in another way…DEEBO. SAMUEL. IS. BETTER. THAN. DANTE. PETTIS. There it is, and yet the industry is reluctant to shy away from drafting Pettis in the seventh round as a WR3.  Is it because he had 20 of his 27 total receptions in the final 5 games of the season, or because 4 of those receptions went for touchdowns? I’m not the only one that is cold on Pettis. His own coach has been too, based on previous comments regarding Pettis’s need to compete for a starting job. Beat writers of the 49ers have been saying for weeks that he has been struggling with drops and work ethic in camp, and on the flip side, praising not only Deebo, but also Jalen Hurd. There is still time in the preseason for Pettis to get it together, but you’d be kidding yourself if you think Coach Shanahan is married to Pettis as a starter based on a couple of meaningless games in December in which his team was getting blown-out. Do yourself a favor and use your sixth / seventh round pick on your quarterback or wide receiver such as Will Fuller or Christian Kirk. There are even a couple good tight ends available at that spot. Ignore the depth charts at this point, as they’ll only scare you away. Pass up Pettis and get the value and upside that Deebo gives you seven rounds later. If you miss out on Samuel, Hurd wouldn’t be a bad selection at the end of your draft either.

Do I know what the running back situation is going to look like in Miami? I don’t. However that is exactly why we should be paying more attention to Kalen Ballage. Kenyan Drake is the more talented back, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be the more valuable fantasy asset from the Dolphins backfield. With Drake an unrestricted free agent at seasons end, the new Miami staff may want to get a good look at Ballage to see what they have going forward. The Dolphins also signed former Bengal Mark Walton and drafted Myles Gaskin, both of which will get some run as well. Ballage is the more powerful runner and better suited for early down work, with the Dolphins most likely wanting to try and control the clock with the run game. The average draft position of both these backs suggests that many still believe Kenyan Drake will answer the call and be the more fantasy relevant player. However, Ballage’s stock has increased over the past few weeks and we could see more of the same with three preseason games still to play. The Miami Dolphins official website lists both of them as co-starters, but of course we have to take these preseason depth charts with a grain of salt. I can see why Drake is still being drafted in the 5th round when you look at the running backs being drafted around him (James White, Rashaad Penny, Derrius Gucie, Tarik Cohen), but it might be a good idea to make sure you take Ballage about 5 rounds later. It wouldn’t surprise me to see both of their ADP’s inch closer to each other over the rest of the summer, with Drake sliding down and Ballage moving up.

Do I really have to write about Matt Breida every year? Breida was one of the most efficient runners on a yards per touch basis last season and he’s still not getting any love. I get the fact that he was in and out of games with various injuries, but he was still a borderline RB2 despite that, and also missing two games. Tevin Coleman, who I am a big fan of, is going a full six rounds earlier, and could be getting only 50% of the running back production from that backfield. It amazes me that these two are being drafted as a starter (Coleman) and a handcuff (Breida). Just because Shanahan has some familiarity with Coleman, doesn’t mean that he’s the “featured” back. This is going to be a committee, and it is not going to be as spread out as some think. Jerick McKinnon had a setback with his knee and could start the season on IR, while even a healthy Jeffrey Wilson, and Raheem Mostert are no threat to Matt Breida. I have no problem drafting both Coleman and Breida, but from a value standpoint, there is no question Breida will give you more bang for your buck.

Thompson was one of my favorite under-the-radar running backs to enter the draft. An undersized runner with good balance and isn’t afraid to run between the tackles, is also a play-maker. He gives Andy Reid another weapon that can be used in multiple facets of the game. My opinion regarding Damien Williams isn’t a secret, but I’m not going to go as far as saying that Thompson is going to be, or take over the featured back role. Or am I? Head Coach Andy Reid has publicly said that he will, and has, used a RBBC approach in the past. Well, he really hasn’t and probably won’t. Ok, he did it in 2003 with Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter and Duce Staley.  Either way, that doesn’t mean that Williams (Damien) will be “that guy” either, or at least not for the entire season. There are many ways the Chiefs can go here as Reid said:

I did a little bit of that when I was in Philadelphia, a kind of running back-by-committee deal and we had some success with it. We’ll do that here. We ended up drafting a kid there also and the other Williams isn’t bad either. So, we have a couple Williams’s and Carlos and a new little guy in there that runs around. So we have a good nucleus of players and I think we’re going to be good in that spot, and they all have their strengths, so we’re gonna try and exploit all their strengths there. 

Bottom Line is this: Darwin Thompson has just as good a chance as any of them to be the leading fantasy producer, and at a 14th round value, there isn’t any risk, but a great deal of reward. With the ability to make plays every-time he touches the ball, Thompson could exceed his draft value by mid-season.

.@Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid discussed what he sees from Patrick Mahomes coming off an MVP season and how the RB room is shaping up in Kansas City…

“Pat has a way about him and he is a pretty humble kid for all the accolades he’s had.”

🔽AUDIO🔽 pic.twitter.com/ON8X7G2sWu

— SiriusXM NFL Radio (@SiriusXMNFL) August 8, 2019

Jared Cook is the highest drafter player being talked about here. He his currently the 7th tight end off the board and being drafted in the seventh round. So how much more can he outperform a 7th round ADP? If we take a look at the top three tight ends off the board (Kelce, Kittle & Ertz), they are being drafted in the first three rounds. Cook has the ability, and is in the right situation, where it wouldn’t surprise me if he finished the season as a top three tight end. I know what you’re thinking. Yes, we have been down this road before when Coby Fleener replaced Jimmy Graham in New Orleans. At that time, Fleener too, was being drafted in a similar capacity to how we’re drafting Cook. The difference now is this. Cook isn’t the same player, and Fleener was never really able to get on the same page with Brees. That is not what we’re hearing coming out of Saints camp this time around. The Saints beat writers have done nothing but praise the chemistry between the two, and it happened early and quickly. When Michael Thomas wasn’t at practice, waiting on a new contract, there was no question who Brees targeted the most. Cook. Don’t pass up on Cook because of what happened with Fleener. Draft Cook, and he very well could give you the same return as the top three guys.

Sam Darnold (NYJ): FantasyPros ECR: QB23, ADP: 14.07

Darnold is expected to take that next step in development, and he just may have the pieces necessary to do that. There is no question that having Le’Veon Bell in the backfield is crucial in this process. Bell is the type of talent that will keep defenses honest, as well as being that all-important safety net for his quarterback. Many reports coming out of Jets camp, have been very positive regarding how not only Bell, but also Ty Montgomery, are being used in Adam Gase’s offense. I already know what you’re thinking when it comes to Gase. It has been said before. However, this situation is different than that of what happened in Miami. Sam Darnold was a top 3 pick, and a highly coveted quarterback prospect for a couple of years. Forget that the Dolphins selected Tannehill with the 8th pick in the first round in 2012. It was ill-advised, and a mistake. That’s on them. After being a wide receiver for his first two college seasons, Tannehill converted to quarterback in his junior year of college. He was a project. Darnold isn’t.  Despite the “hype” around Darnold and his development, the FantasyPros expert consensus ranking (ECR) for Darnold is QB23. That is only three spots higher, and a difference of 7 total fantasy points from the QB23 (Mariota), than where he finished all of last season while missing three games. If Darnold didn’t miss those three games, he would’ve finished inside the top 20 for the position (difference of 32 points). That would mean that even though we expect a jump in his development, with a superstar running back, and improved (though not much) supporting cast, he would finish behind where he did a year ago for fantasy production? Something has to give, and I’m not sure what exactly that is. Am I expecting a sophomore season like Patrick Mahomes had a year ago? Absolutely not! Would it surprise me to see Darnold finish as the QB15? Also, absolutely not. The current consensus QB 15, Tom Brady, is being drafted a full four rounds before Darnold. Sam Darnold is not to be drafted as a QB1 in single quarterback leagues. Worth it to have him as a back-up though? Well, if you’re one to carry/ draft two quarterbacks, than definitely.  He is however, someone you should be comfortable with as your second QB in 2-quarterback and super-flex leagues, as he will outperform his current ADP.