CEH: Don’t Call It A Comeback?

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, CEH, was crowned the heir prince of last year’s running back crops. He was hand-picked by both Andy Reid and Mahomes, and because of that, he was going to set the fantasy football world on fire. That did not happen. However, Edwards-Helaire had a pretty good season for a rookie running back, with no offseason workouts, no minicamps, and no preseason games. He was thrown into a very complex passing system with Kansas City, and with an Offensive Line that was disseminated by injuries and poor play. Nonetheless, Edwards-Helaire was a top 12 running back through the first six weeks of the season while only scoring one touchdown and being just one more touchdown away from being a top 5 running back.  The Chiefs signed Le’Veon Bell on October 16th, and Bell played his first game in Week 7. One has to wonder if Edwards-Helaire was already injured at this juncture and this prompted the team to sign Bell. Even then, Edwards-Helaire, with a depleted Offensive Line, was the team’s leader in rushing attempts, rushing yards, and touchdowns among the Chief’s running backs. Edwards-Helaire had 36 catches on 54 targets, almost as many as all other running backs combined. In only 13 games, Edwards-Helaire had 1,100 total yards and 5 total touchdowns. Much has been said about his lack of involvement in the red zone. His touches were more than double those of Bell and were more than all the other running backs on the team combined, including Bell. I would argue that the lack of involvement in the red zone was more of a symptom of a poor offensive line than an issue with Edwards-Helaire’s rushing ability. 

So CEH returns this year as, what in our wonderful game we call, a post-hype candidate with top 15 appeal. In fact, FantasyPros Consensus ADP has him as being

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drafted in late 2nd /early 3rd round as the RB15. I would argue that with a full offseason to learn the passing scheme and practice with the team, in addition to having a revamped offensive line and less competition for touches, Edwards-Helaire has a very good chance of beating that ADP and ending the season as an RB1. 

Despite not living up to the unrealistic expectations put upon him by an excitable fantasy football community, Edwards-Helaire had some pretty impressive numbers. He did not have a fumble all season. He was a top 25 running back on yards per carry and finished among the top 20 running backs on yards after contact per carry. Edwards-Helaire was a  top 15 running back on forced missed tackles per carry as well. I would also argue that we were disappointed last season by his lack of usage, not skills. But this is where the usage becomes questionable. During the first 6 weeks of the season, only Joe Mixon, Ezekiel Elliot, and Derrick Henry had more touches than Edwards-Helaire. Then, the Chiefs signed Bell, and CEH’s touches went down. Edwards-Helaire played at least 60% of all the snaps and had over 18 touches per game through the first 6 weeks. This is more than enough evidence for me to believe that there was an injury that limited his touches after week 6.

I’m drafting Edwards-Helaire at his current ADP of RB15, fully expecting a much better return if he stays healthy. The offensive line will be vastly improved; he will be much more involved in the passing game; and he will have less competition for touches out of the backfield. In 2021, CEH will be who we thought he was last year.