Fresh pot of coffee is brewing. My first article of 2021 is focusing on Zach Wilson. Why? Well, he’s probably my favorite prospect in the 2021 draft class, and my hometown team could be his destination. Ok, that’s not the only reason. He simply isn’t getting enough of love from some of those primarily in the fantasy industry. I’m not going to be naming names or calling out anyone in particular, but there are plenty that either don’t know what they’re talking about, going about it all wrong, or just throwing “takes” out there for their followers. 

I may not be ready to go as far as some recently discussed comments about Wilson being better than Trevor Lawrence, but trust me, I can see why someone has those thoughts and I’m not too far behind. If there is a gap between Lawrence and Wilson, it certainly isn’t as wide as the one between Wilson and Fields and the rest of the quarterback class. Like many others, I watch the film. And rewatch it again. And most likely watch it a third time. So, what is getting me so riled up about what others are saying about Wilson? I’m getting there. Part of it has to do with his “biggest weakness”… He has had great protection at BYU. Seriously? So his value, primarily his floor, is so low as others have suggested because he had a good offensive line in college? Sure, I’ll play along. Yes he had a good offensive line. A line that allowed him to have an average of 2.81 seconds to throw the ball. Not bad. Although it wasn’t as good as Justin Fields behind the Ohio State line that gave him 3.11 seconds. Yet somehow, Fields was sacked 10 times more than Wilson in four less games. Are we going to ignore that even with more time, better receivers and a system that generally gets receivers wide open, Fields also threw more interceptions and had a lower completion percentage than Wilson despite all that extra time? I’m not. But again, “Wilson’s floor is so low because he had so much time to throw”. I didn’t forget about Lawrence, he just didn’t fit into my narrative regarding “pressure” as Wilson’s biggest weakness. 

Okay, I’ll talk a little bit about Lawrence. Want me to let you in on a little secret? Lawrence is the consensus #1 overall pick because he has been built up as such

Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

for the past three seasons, if not before that, and rightfully so. A five star recruit out of Georgia, breaking all the state’s quarterback records, many of which were held by Deshaun Watson, Lawrence has been deemed “The Next Big Thing” and a “generational talent” for the past 5 or so years now. There is no denying that he is deserving of those labels and his play going back to his Freshman season also warrants that. I’m not going to get into a debate between Lawrence and Wilson, because there really isn’t one to be had. There is no way I can say that Wilson is the better prospect or will have a better NFL Career, but if you watch the film, and I mean really watch the film, you should be able to see why some are able to make that argument. When you watch Lawrence’s film a couple of key aspects stand out for me. I’m not getting into an all-out scouting report because there is enough of that going around and the positives far out-weigh the negatives. Lawrence needs to be a little more accurate, although that has improved over his college career. As he should. He certainly has the arm strength, timing, and anticipation to make the deep throws, but oftentimes he tries too hard. His wind-up type of delivery on those balls, gives defenses extra time to get to him. Those are the same throws that we see Wilson make with what looks like a “flick” of the wrist. Wilson’s athleticism and escapability is above that of Lawrence, though they’re very similar when it comes to running the ball and finding the end-zone when doing so. Fields is the better runner of the three, but a lot that could have to do with him doing it more often. I’m not even mentioning Trey Lance, and I don’t plan to for the sake of this article. This is supposed to be about Wilson, so let me get back to him and some of the things I’ve been reading on social media. 

In addition to Wilson not being exposed to a lot of pressure, some also believe his floor is so low because of what he did as a freshman and sophomore. What aggravates me about this, is first off, he wasn’t bad as a true freshman. He did have a grade of over 80 according to Pro Football Focus, and completed 66% of his passes, while throwing 12 touchdowns to only three interceptions. His sophomore season was a bit different. His completion percentage dropped to 64%, and he threw for 11 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. There is a disclaimer to that sophomore season however. Wilson missed spring camp coming off of surgery to repair his labrum on his throwing shoulder, while also injuring his thumb during a September game in the final minutes. The thumb injury required surgery and forced him to miss about 6 games. With the exception of one game, Wilson’s performance declined following the thumb injury, but is it really that fair to use a season in which he had two surgeries as a method to evaluate his floor? Since I gotta give the Wilson naysayers something, if you want to use his injury history as a caution sign, go ahead. I’ll let you have that, even though I still don’t agree with it. I also don’t understand how going back to his freshman and sophomore seasons is a valid method of evaluation to determine someone’s potential or floor. The only reason talent evaluators go back to early college film is to see if that player has shown progression in certain areas over time, and Wilson has clearly demonstrated that he has. Then of course you have the “one year wonder” people. Do I really need to spend time on that silly argument? I could be here awhile if I list and/or talk about every college quarterback that was a “one year wonder” who went on to have successful NFL careers and even more so those that had multiple great college seasons, only to fail at the next level. 

(BYU Photo)

Bottom Line: Bottom line is this: None of us, and I’m including those whose career it is to watch, scout and analyze college prospects really know what any player is going to do at the next level. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, two of the most known and respected draft analysts are wrong more often than not. Professional scouts and general managers are also wrong more often than they are right. Players taken in the first round or top 5 picks can be busts, just like those taken in rounds 3 and 4 can become stars. Coaching, systems, surrounding casts, personal life, city, outside influences, tragedies, money, opportunities, interview process, injuries are just some of the factors that can have influence on a player’s success. However, if you are going to throw your takes out there, back it up with something credible. Using freshman and sophomore seasons as a reason why a player’s floor is low is just ridiculous. You want to tell me that the level of competition that Wilson has faced isn’t as great as other prospects, well then you have something. However, the level of competition doesn’t have anything to do with his mechanics, footwork, accuracy, athleticism, and you know, the majority of attributes a quarterback is evaluated on. You know why? Simple answer. The weakest competition in the NFL is FAR SUPERIOR to the greatest competition of any college program anyway. How have those Alabama quarterbacks done so far in the NFL, despite not only playing against top teams, but also practicing daily against a top defense? Perhaps Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones can rewrite that narrative, but that remains to be seen. If you’re going to throw baseless hot takes out there have something behind it when questioned about it. Simply typing up College Football Reference and looking at stats, just doesn’t do it for me. Instead of spending countless hours on twitter, posting things just to get your impressions, spend that time really understanding what you’re talking about. I know everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but I’m having a hard time understanding how anybody that has actually watched Zach Wilson’s games, can say he isn’t at least the 2nd best quarterback in this year’s class. I don’t know about you, but I would rather a quarterback who’s biggest weakness is being untested under-pressure and level of competition (Wilson) than someone who is accurate, yet not so much so out of the pocket, holds onto the ball too long, and has trouble processing and reading defenses (Fields).

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